160c, today target 14444 / 13555
Mid term target 157, 167, 170.

2008 target SHS, 目標, 170, 233

Nov 13, Dec 7, Dec 31
let's see.

up used 54 weeks
down used 13 weeks

interesting?

60mins charts show 10567 - 13248 is all green in IB, and ran 5 wave in fox.

reconfirm HHI, and can confirm 5 waves ran.

this will be more easy.

A = 2681
B low = 12235 runs 3x 60mins from 13248 = 1013pts

C = Ax1.000=14916
C = Ax1.382=15940
C = Ax1.500=16256
C = Ax1.618=16572

Note: C can be C1, if we extend the trend :)
======
Daily. GRGR.... tom maybe green, open up run down, open down run down.

Today, expect a run of 124 down but not, means the hsi is seen a short term bottom(can be long term), heading up for more. For rebound, we use ABC. ABC have different size. at this moment, we don't know what size is it, so, we use 1:1 first.

A = 10567-13245,
C = 12235-14913

Target 14913

inside the C, it should run a 12345 where the135 can be 12345. we see the first 1 is jump. so, we're at C-3-3 right now. afternoon can be open higher then run down for C-3-4, and up again to finish C-3-3.

let's count the C-3-1 which start from 12235 to the high of first 30mins which is 13380. a total of 1145 points. The low of the first 30mins is 13158, if we add 1145pts, and it's 1.382, 1.5, and 1.618 times as the C-3-3 target, we get.

1: 14303
1.382: 14740
1.5: 14875
1.618: 15010

with this big ABC 1:1 = 14913, and small C-3-3 target max 15010.
we can set a short term target at 14900-5000 for now.
==================================================================
below is my original thought one week ago.

Just a thought.

resistant: 15500, 17300



below is Second thought

Top 13245, today runs abc retrace and down at 12235

if 5 = 1, 12235 + (11750-10567) = 13418

wish:
1. trend start from 12235 is another 5 wave up
2. trend start from 12235 is wave 3 if 11042-13245 is wave 1. and the target is at least 1:1 2203+12235 = 14438, 1.5 = 15540

what if not?

today trace down 13245-12235 = 1010

today if open higher, down 1000 or 1500

suppose tom open 12872-1000 = 11862, -1500 = 11362

today up 1580pts. finished all previous day down with more money traded.

it's a warning, it's ringing the bell

after we shot the bullet, we hear "Band" and we wait for a big .......

Today, ran a ABC rebounce, if nothing more, open higher, and we run the last ABC down.

suppose 14041 - 10567 = 3474
12642-3474 = 9168

looks okay!

10.27 Noon

today low = 10567

3 days, and we drop from 14041 to 10567 = 3474 where 8 trading days before drops 3890pts.

suppose we see bottom around 9xxx, 9xxx + 3500 = 12500-13500

======

oct 21, we got high on 15563, 2days 13431 = 2132
if we run 100%, = 13981(oct 23 high) - 2132 = 11849
if we run 200%, = 13981 - 2132x2 = 9717

======
From 31948, we see 4 down abc

First A 31948 - 25627 = 6321
First C 30094-20450 = 9644

for this picture, we should assume, the radio of the down trend is A = 6, C = 9, if 6321/9644 = 0.655

Second A = 26501 - 24050 = 2451
Second C = 24886-20977 = 3909
2451/0.655 = 3740. almost
2451/6x9 = 3677. almost

Third Aa = 23426 - 21429 = 1997
Third Ac = 22466-20305 = 2161
this is 1:1

Third Ca = 21521-19625 = 1896
Third Cc = 20781-16288 = 4493
this is 19:45

Third A = 23426 - 20305=3121
Third C = 21521-16288=5233
3121/6x9 = 4682, kind of less
3121/.655 = 4765, kind of less also.

Forth Aa = 20040-16516=3524
Forth Ac = 18258-14329=3929
this is 1:1

Forth Ca = 17260-14339=2921
Forth CC = 15563-10567=4996
2921/6x9 = 4382, kind of less
2921/.655 = 4460, kind of less also.

Forth A = 20040-14329=5711
Forth C = 17260-10567=6693
5711/6x9=8567
5711/.655=8719

The Forth C seems not enough. the low should be <8500 (17260-8719)

Bear Target

Long Term: SHS, 11948


Mid: oct = sept 11490

Short: This week = Last week: 11848

So, what's next after above target? first rebounce target 14500.

what next? no idea :P

USA drops from 14000 to low 7800 =35%
HK drops from 32000 to 14329 = 55%
=================================
USA Drops from 9800 to tonight 8000 = 22.5%
HK Drops from 17260 to 12380 = 39.4%
=================================
HSI weekly Plan A
26500-20977= 5523
23426-16288 = 7138
20040-12380 =7660 Seems enough.
if one more(26500-23426-20040 = ~3000 each top) so.
15400 - 5500 = 9900 or 15400 - 6773( [5523+7138+7660]/3) = 8627 final bottom

if 20040-12380 =7660 not enough, we can split it into 2.
20040-14329 = 5711
17260-5711=11549

each trend scan.
26500-24050 = 2450=A
24886-20977= 3909=C
3909/2450=159.5%

23426-20305=3121=A
21521-16288=5233=C
5233/3121=167.7%

20040-16516=3524=A
18376-14329=4047=C
4047/3524=114.8%

17260-14339=2921=A
15563-12380=3183=C
3183/2921=108.9%

15563-13370=2193=A
14041-2522=11519=C

For above 2 Analyze, bottom around 11500

each bottom scan.
july 2008 = 20977
aug 2008 = 20305
sept 2008 = 16288
oct 2008 = 12380
oct have 2 bottom so far,
A=14329
B=12380
so, 14329-12380=1949
16288-14329=1959

20305-16288 = 4017
16288-12380=3908

For bottom scan, 12380 may be the bottom already.

HSI weekly Plan B
23426-20305=3121=C1
21521-16288=5233=C3-1
20040-14329=5711 =C3-3
17260-12380(new low? if 5=1, should be 17260-5233=12027) =4880= C3-5
then C4a, C4b, C4c, C51 to C55 blah blah blah down to 8xxx again.
----------------

So,
plan A, we get 11500, or 12380
plan B, we get 12000

both of them are lower than the current low except the bottom scan.

monday open lower, target 12000, 11500, if open high(not likely), wait double bottom to buy.